Thoughts and Predictions of the 12-Team Playoffs

Explaining the College Football Playoffs

College Football is introducing a new twelve-team playoff format this season unlike anything we have seen in sports. The teams included in the playoffs will be the five highest-ranked conference champions, followed by the seven highest-ranked teams that remain. Let's dive into it.

Let's begin with our conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions will get a first-round to the quarterfinals of the playoffs. As for the fifth conference champion included in the playoffs, they will be seeded according to their rank. Let's say for example, East Carolina wins the American Conference and is ranked #23 in the country, they would not be the #5 seed in the playoffs, they would be the #12 seed since they are the lowest ranked team in the playoffs.

It is possible our conference champions are ranked #1, #3, #5, #13, and #23. That would mean a few teams in the Top 12 do not make the playoffs. We'd have the #2, #4, #6, #7, #8, #9, and #10 ranked teams in the playoffs, leaving out the #11 and #12 teams in the nation to make way for the two conference champions that were the highest ranked.

The first round of the playoffs will be played on the higher seed's campus. This is the first time a playoff game will be consistently played on some of these campuses, and I bet the atmosphere on those nights will be unlike anything anybody has ever experienced before. Imagine a playoff game in Knoxville, University Park, Norman, Columbia, or College Station. If you thought the NFL Playoffs were electric, we haven't seen anything yet.

The next round (quarterfinals) will be featured in Crown Jewel Bowl Games the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl. The semi-finals will also feature the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl Classic. These bowl games will rotate around from year to year, so each will get their time in the quarter and semi-finals. The National Championship game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.   

Predictions for 2024

My #1 seed this year comes out of the Big Ten. Hot take, I know. The SEC will beat each other up, and I do not have a clear-cut SEC champion this season; I'll get into that in just a second. Give me Oregon. Last year, they barely lost the Pac-12 title game to Washington, and they have loaded up this year. If ever there was a time for Oregon to make a run for the National Title, 2024 is the year for the Ducks. They'll have to go through Ohio State, who comes to Eugene, and Michigan, in Ann Arbor, but I'm very confident in this Oregon team to win the Big Ten their first season in the conference.

My #2 seed does come from the SEC. Depending on how the season goes, this could be our #1 seed, but I'm putting the SEC Champion at #2 because I'm not confident in this pick at all. There are three options here. Georgia, Texas, or Alabama. I will not be taking Texas and I admit, I'm biased here. I don't see them beating Oklahoma, Georgia, and TAMU. They're going to lose one, if not two, of these games.

Though Georgia is the highest-ranking team on ESPN's Football Power Index, and all the experts are predicting Georgia to win it all this year, they didn't last season, and this year, there are a ton of distractions surrounding the team that will make an impact. They play at Alabama, at Texas, and at Ole Miss this year. By November, half the team's starters may be in jail for doing something stupid or ineligible to play because their GPA is so low (for context, Georgia has had at least 29 arrests or citations for speeding, reckless driving, or racing since January of 2023 and the Georgia football team has a 44% graduation rate). I see Georgia going downhill and becoming a Tier 2 team in the SEC within five years.

That leaves Alabama. Now that Saban is gone, people are sleeping on Alabama, but what a lot of people fail to remember is Kalen DeBoer made it to the National Championship last year with the Washington Huskies after beating Oregon in the Pac-12 Title Game and Texas in the Semi-Finals. Now, he is paired with one of the strongest, most consistent brands in college football, the Alabama Crimson Tide. If there is one thing I have learned since I started putting $1 bets on games, it's to never bet against the Crimson Tide. While DeBoer may be no Saban, he isn't someone people should look over.

So, my #2 team is Alabama. I think there are many different ways the SEC could shape out this year, and we could get Georgia or Texas, but for right now, in the words of Pat McAfee, "GIVE ME ALABAMA!!!"

#3 is coming out of the ACC, and there are two options: Florida State or Clemson. The Seminoles have lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but they have by no means taken a step back. Clemson, on the other hand, has retained most of its offense, but its defense is almost entirely filled with new starters. Clemson will have team chemistry on their side, but I don't have a lot of confidence that Cade Clubnik can win big games, so for that reason, give me Florida State. If you want a sleeper out of the ACC, Louisville could also be thrown in the mix.

#4, you have to go with the winner of the Big XII. What other conference do you see surpassing the SEC, Big Ten, the ACC, or the Big XII anytime soon? The Big XII will be very competitive this season, especially with new additions from the Pac-12. Kansas looks better than it has in a long time, but that defense is atrocious. Jalon Daniels will be a highly sought-after quarterback, but defense wins championships.

There are two teams I see being a "safe bet" for the Big XII, and those two teams are Utah and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is solid across the board and will be one of the most challenging teams to defend because of their ground-and-pound offense. Their only weakness is at the quarterback position, so if you can shut down Ollie Gordon and the running game, you'll be in good shape. It's also not that difficult to outsmart Gundy.

Utah is solid across the board and has the best defense on paper in the conference. Their receivers are an area of question for me, but they are one of the more consistent teams at the top of the Big XII. Therefore, I'm voting for Utah to be Big XII Champions this season.

Trying to determine who my #5 team will be is a difficult task because there are many good teams that are outside of a Power 4 conference. For that reason, I'm going to list a few teams that could fit in this spot instead of just one. Out of the American Conference, Memphis might be my pick if you want me to choose just one team. I think they could compete at a high level in the Big XII and ACC, and I see them losing one game to Florida State in Tallahassee.

Liberty could punch their way into playoffs if they win the CUSA, but I find it hard to give the fifth spot to a CUSA team. Boise State is another contender out of the Mountain West, especially if they compete with Oregon and can beat Oregon State. James Madison or Appalachian State out of the Sun Belt will likely find their way into the playoffs, if not this year, within the next five seasons. Lastly, someone fact-check me here; technically, Oregon State can win the Pac-12 and lock in their playoff bid. I'll reiterate, though, that Memphis is the most likely to take that #5 spot.

I will not try to seed the next seven teams, but I will tell you who is a lock and who is a contender for a playoff spot. Ohio State and Michigan are locks out of the Big Ten, and Georgia and Texas are locks out of the SEC. From here, it gets dicey. With three spots left, picking just three is hard, but I will force myself to pick here. If Penn State loses one game to Ohio State and wins the rest, they're an easy lock, so give me Penn State. Ole Miss has a favorable schedule, with their only loss in my books being against Georgia, so give me Ole Miss.

Lastly, I'm torn between Tennessee and Oklahoma. Each team has three games that will determine what their post-season will look like, including a game against one another in Norman. Oklahoma plays Texas and Alabama, and Tennessee plays Alabama and Georgia. Even if they lose both games, this selection will be determined by who wins in Norman, and because the game is in Norman, give me the Sooners.

Now that I have my locks, I think a few teams could also compete for those final three spots. It's tough to leave Notre Dame out of the conversation, but their toughest game this year is Florida State. Missouri could take that twelfth spot from Oklahoma or Tennessee, especially if they beat Oklahoma and have one loss to Alabama. LSU, Clemson, and Kansas are others that I find sneaking their way in if they have one or two quality losses on their record book.

Final Thoughts on the 12-Team Playoff Format

At the end of the day, we get more college football, and how could you hate that? With conference realignment, there are several college football fans who are not happy about the fifth conference champion getting a spot in the playoffs. I like the idea because that team is representative of the Group of 5 conferences. If this were not in place, we might as well create an entirely separate division for them. These playoffs open the opportunity for schools to be in the spotlight that typically are not.

Now that I've played a few seasons in my dynasty mode in College Football 25, I understand (to an extent) that it is going to be difficult for any team to win this thing, and whoever comes out a National Champion we will not have to question the "what if" like Florida State did last season. Though Georgia stomped them, we can all speculate: what if Georgia and Florida State were in the playoffs? There are enough teams in the playoffs where we minimize the what-if.

What do you think of the twelve-team playoff format? Who do you think are the 1-5 seeds this year? Let me know in the comments!