Don't Sleep on the Dukes

James Madison’s basketball team has been a force to reckon with this season, and their placement as a #12 seed in the NCAA tournament is a gross underestimation of their prowess. They’ve had an exceptional run, losing only three games, clinching the Sun Belt Conference Tournament and Regular Season titles, and even defeating the #4 team in the country at the start of the season.
The history of the NCAA tournament has seen only two #12 teams make it to the Elite Eight - Missouri in 2002 and Oregon State in 2021. However, with their impressive performance this season, James Madison could very well be the best #12 team the tournament has ever seen.
The #12 vs. #5 matchup has been the stage for numerous upsets since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The #12 seed has emerged victorious in nearly 35% of these matchups. In fact, in 32 of the past 38 years, a #12 seed has managed to outplay a #5 team. If the Dukes pull off a win against Wisconsin on Friday, it wouldn’t be the first time the Badgers have fallen to a #12 seed - they were defeated by Oregon in 2019.
Wisconsin’s performance in the first round is hard to predict. They made it to the Big Ten Championship game and even defeated #3 Purdue to get there. However, they ended their last 11 regular-season games with just three wins. They were the #6 team in the country at one point in early February but quickly lost their top-ten ranking after a loss to Purdue, followed by consecutive losses to Michigan and Rutgers.
If the Dukes advance past the first round, they’ll face either the Duke Blue Devils or the Vermont Catamounts. While the Catamounts shouldn’t be dismissed outright, it’s highly likely that we’ll see a James Madison vs. Duke second round. Duke isn’t a championship-caliber team this season and is unlikely to make it past the Sweet Sixteen, where they’ll likely face Houston.
While it may seem far-fetched to suggest that James Madison could defeat Duke, it’s not entirely out of the question. Duke is known for being a team where players are more focused on showcasing their skills for NBA scouts than on winning as a team. This is probably why they haven’t won a championship in nearly a decade despite being a blue-chip program. This is a weakness that James Madison could exploit to propel themselves into the Sweet 16.
In the Sweet Sixteen, the Dukes could face teams like Houston, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Longwood. James Madison, being wildly underrated, could hold its own against teams like Nebraska, A&M, and Longwood. Although Houston is likely to make it to the Sweet 16, the Iowa State Cyclones made the Cougars look silly in the Big XII Championship. James Madison could take advantage of this and advance to the Elite 8.
In the Elite 8, the Dukes could potentially face teams like Purdue, Gonzaga, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Creighton. Kansas is being left out of the equation because they are overrated this year. At this point, James Madison will have had to get past Wisconsin, Duke, and Houston, or at least the teams that knocked off Duke and Houston, which is no easy feat. If James Madison makes it to the Elite 8, anything is possible. Saint Peters made the Elite 8 as a #15 seed after beating #2 Kentucky, #7 Murray State, and #3 Purdue. After all, this is why they call it March Madness. If you’re looking for a potential Cinderella Story this year, the Dukes have the potential to go on the wildest run this tournament has seen.